Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong (preprint)

After keeping infections at bay for two years, Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022 that overwhelmed the health care system, isolation facilities, and contact tracing capacity, leading to one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19 in early 2022. The outbreak occurred against a backdrop of a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures. Using genome sequences and epidemiological data from this time, we reconstruct the epidemic trajectory of the BA.2 wave, estimate transmission and incidence rates, and evaluate the effectiveness of policy changes. We identify an increase in the effective reproductive rate (Re) to 9.5 in mid-January 2022, which preceded real-time estimates of transmission (Rt), revealing that BA.2 community transmission was under-ascertained weeks before the epidemic appeared to surge in mid-February 2022. Due to this, public health measures were relaxed in early February (Spring Festival) while Re increased and remained > 1 throughout February. An independent estimation of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also indicates extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. This study demonstrates that relying on Rt estimation methods dependent on case reporting can misinform epidemic response planning, sometimes with substantial consequences. There is a need for future research and implementation of improved estimates of epidemic growth in near real-time that combine multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy.

Insights into COVID-19 epidemiology and control from temporal changes in serial interval distributions in Hong Kong (preprint)

The serial interval distribution is used to approximate the generation time distribution, an essential parameter to predict the effective reproductive number "Rt", a measure of transmissibility. However, serial interval distributions may change as an epidemic progresses rather than remaining constant. Here we show that serial intervals in Hong Kong varied over time, closely associated with the temporal variation in COVID-19 case profiles and public health and social measures that were implemented in response to surges in community transmission. Quantification of the variation over time in serial intervals led to improved estimation of Rt, and provided additional insights into the impact of public health measures on transmission of infections. One-Sentence SummaryReal-time estimates of serial interval distributions can improve assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and control.

Within-hotel transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during on-arrival quarantine in Hong Kong (preprint)

Background: On-arrival quarantine has been one of the primary measures used to prevent the introduction of COVID-19 into Hong Kong since the start of the pandemic. Most on-arrival quarantines have been done in hotels, with the duration of quarantine and testing frequency during quarantine varying throughout the pandemic for various reasons. However, hotels are not necessarily designed with infection control in mind. We aimed to study the potential risk of transmission between persons in on-arrival quarantine. Methods: We examined data on each laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case identified in on-arrival quarantine in a hotel in Hong Kong between 1 May 2020 and 31 January 2022. We sequenced the full genomes of viruses from cases that overlapped with other confirmed cases in terms of the hotel of stay, date of arrival and date of testing positive. A combination of epidemiological information and sequence information was then used to identify probable transmission events. Findings: Among 221 imported cases that overlapped with other quarantined cases, phylogenetic analysis identified eight suspected clusters comprising 20 cases in total. Only three of these clusters had been recognised as hotel transmission events. Interpretation: We have identified potential occurrences of COVID-19 transmission within hotel quarantine in Hong Kong demonstrating the underlying low but non-zero risk associated with sequestering arrivals within hotels. In future pandemics, on-arrival quarantine in hotels could be used to delay the introduction of infection, but the construction of purpose-built facilities for on-arrival quarantine might be necessary to minimize importation risk.

Air travel-related outbreak of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

Background. A large cluster of 59 cases were linked to a single flight with 146 passengers from New Delhi to Hong Kong in April 2021. This outbreak coincided with early reports of exponential pandemic growth in New Delhi, which reached a peak of >400,000 newly confirmed cases on 7 May 2021. Methods. Epidemiological information including date of symptom onset, date of positive-sample detection, and travel and contact history for individual cases from this flight were collected. Whole genome sequencing was performed, and sequences were classified based on the dynamic Pango nomenclature system. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis compared sequences from this flight alongside other cases imported from India to Hong Kong on 26 flights between June 2020 and April 2021, as well as sequences from India or associated with India-related travel from February to April 2021, and 1,217 reference sequences. Results. Sequence analysis identified six lineages of SARS-CoV-2 belonging to two variants of concern (Alpha and Delta) and one variant of public health interest (Kappa) involved in this outbreak. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed at least three independent sub-lineages of Alpha with limited onward transmission, a superspreading event comprising 37 cases of Kappa, and transmission of Delta to only one passenger. Additional analysis of another 26 flights from India to Hong Kong confirmed widespread circulation of all three variants in India since early March 2021. Conclusions. The broad spectrum of disease severity and long incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 pose a challenge for surveillance and control. As illustrated by this particular outbreak, opportunistic infections of SARS-CoV-2 can occur irrespective of variant lineage, and requiring a nucleic acid test within 72 hours of departure may be insufficient to prevent importation or in-flight transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 under an elimination strategy in Hong Kong (preprint)

Hong Kong utilized an elimination strategy with intermittent use of public health and social measures and increasingly stringent travel regulations to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By analyzing >1700 genome sequences representing 17% of confirmed cases from 23-January-2020 to 26-January-2021, we reveal the effects of fluctuating control measures on the evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Hong Kong. Despite numerous importations, only three introductions were responsible for 90% of locally-acquired cases, two of which circulated cryptically for weeks while less stringent measures were in place. We found that SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity was most similar among transmission pairs and epidemiological clusters due to a strong transmission bottleneck through which similar genetic background generates similar within-host diversity.

Universal community nucleic acid testing for COVID-19 in Hong Kong reveals insights into transmission dynamics (preprint)

Background: Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control COVID-19. In Hong Kong, a universal community testing programme (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020, to determine the prevalence of unrecognised cases and limit any remaining transmission chains. We described the utility of the UCTP in finding unrecognised cases, and analysed data from the UCTP and other sources to characterise transmission dynamics.Methods: We described the characteristics of people participating in the UCTP, and compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected by the UCTP versus those detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance. We developed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific incidence of infection and the proportion of cases detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance.Findings: 1.77 million people, 24% of the Hong Kong population, participated in the UCTP from 1 to 14 September 2020. The UCTP identified 32 new infections (1.8 per 100,000 samples tested), consisting of 29% of all local cases reported during the two-week UCTP period. Compared with the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance, the UCTP detected a higher proportion of sporadic cases (62% versus 27%, p <0.01) and identified 6 (out of 18) additional transmission chains during that period. We estimated that 27% (95% credible interval: 22%, 34%) of all infections were detected by the existing clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance in the third wave.Interpretation: We reported empirical evidence of the utility of population-wide COVID-19 testing in detecting unrecognised infections and transmission chains. Around three quarters of infections have not been identified through existing surveillance approaches including contact tracing.

Suppressing COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong: an observational study of the first four months (preprint)

Background: Hong Kong was one of the first locations outside of mainland China to identify COVID-19 cases in January 2020. We assessed the impact of various public health measures on transmission.Methods: We analysed data on all COVID-19 cases and public health measures in Hong Kong up to 7 May 2020. We described case-based, travel-based and community-based measures and examined their potential effects on case identification and transmission. Changes in transmissibility measured by the effective reproductive number Rt were estimated by comparing the Rt between periods when public health measures were and were not in effect. Delays in case confirmation in imported cases and locally infected cases were analysed to indicate the possible impact of expansion of laboratory testing capacity.Findings: Introduction of a 14-day quarantine on persons arriving from affected areas was associated with a 95% reduction in transmissibility from imported cases. Testing all arriving travelers reduced mean delays between arrival and detection of imported cases. Increases in laboratory testing capacity for pneumonia inpatients and symptomatic outpatients reduced the delay from onset to confirmation. Working from home and physical distancing measures implemented in high-risk facilities were associated with 67% and 58% reductions in transmission of COVID-19, respectively.Interpretation: Suppression of COVID-19 transmission in the first pandemic wave in Hong Kong was achieved through integration of travel-based, case-based and community-based public health measures focusing on early case identification and isolation and physical distancing.